What if They Don't Come?

"If we build it they will come... but what if they don't?" This is how the recent decision by Dubai ruler Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum to put a halt on new construction projects associated with Dubailand might be characterized. In fact it appears the decision will affect new developments across Dubai. Construction Week publication quotes a senior business development manager of Dubailand saying, "Sheikh Mohammed has asked for a slow down of projects across Dubai--there is too much going on all at once." Meanwhile, reports coming from people involved in Dubai Marina projects indicate that Sheikh Mohammed is urging the quick completion of projects there--by 2009.

 Towers rising in Dubai Marina, 31-Jan-06

What are the implications of these apparent directives? For Dubai as a whole it could mean a significant scaling back of some of the grandiose projects already announced--and the cancellation of some not yet announced. Along with such a scaling back should probably go some of the seemingly pie in the sky projections of growth in population, tourism and the like. Indeed, there have been projections of visitor growth reaching 160 million per year in connection with the creation of the new Jebel Ali International Airport--projected to be, of course, the largest airport in the world. That would be quite a substantial increase from the 5 million or so who visit at present.

 Laborers in Dubai Marina awaiting transport, 31-Jan-06

Does this tarnish Dubai's recently garnered image as a place where grandiose dream projects become reality? The up and coming Burj Dubai, the prospective tallest tower in the world, is presently at 25 floors and rising a floor per week. The first of three Palm islands is nearing completion although behind schedule, and countless other projects, most notably the Jumeirah Beach Residences and other towers in the Dubai Marina are nearing completion. The fact is that an incredible amount of project work is already underway. The recent statements by Sheikh Mohammed, which might be seen to call for a pause in Dubai's march to have the biggest, tallest, and best of everything, is arguably a much needed return to earth.

 JBR towers under construction in Dubai Marina, 31-Jan-06

There doesn't seem to be any concern or alarm over the statements in the local media. It seems instead to be regarded as a reasonable response to the seemingly unending stream of announcements of new and ever-grander schemes. As provided further in the directive, the ruler wants to see the completion of more projects before new once are offered. This seems to make good business sense, even while being in contrast to the "more is better" attitude that has prevailed till now.

There has been constant concern over a possible glut in the property market in light of all the projects coming up concurrently. Now, we are seeing the first substantial action by the powers that be to address this concern. It may well be said that the day Dubai decided to put the brakes on its unprecedented building spree will be seen to mark an important turning point, and one that may play a critical role in the eventual success of its building plans. Sheikh Mohammed's timely pronouncements, just weeks after taking over as official ruler of Dubai, seem to represent a positive move. Perhaps not so much concerned that they may not come, H.H. Sheikh Mohammed seems more likely concerned that all is in place for when they do come.

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